← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Sun, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 69% | 77% | 1.36 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 20% | 15% | 5.00 | fair |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 12% | 8% | 8.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 549.00 | 2102.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1642.01 | 1430.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.78 | -33.72 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| league points | 56.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 15.96 | 13.96 |
| season ppg | 2.07 | 1.15 |
| state index | 1.12 | -1.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |