← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Sat, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greuther Furth win | 46% | 46% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
| Duisburg win | 27% | 27% | 3.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Greuther Furth | Duisburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1371.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1548.13 | 1509.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.73 | -42.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| league points | 47.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 14.96 |
| season ppg | 1.74 | 1.59 |
| state index | 0.24 | -0.45 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |