← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Fri, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe win | 51% | 52% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.60 | fair |
| VfL Osnabruck win | 23% | 26% | 4.20 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Karlsruhe | VfL Osnabruck |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 4200.00 | 31.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1406.12 | 1368.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.34 | -24.81 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 27.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 12.96 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.93 |
| state index | -0.48 | -1.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |