← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Fri, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cottbus win | 55% | 66% | 1.70 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 25% | 19% | 3.75 | fair |
| Ingolstadt win | 20% | 15% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cottbus | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 639.00 | 145.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1543.91 | 1426.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.50 | 39.92 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 45.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 10.96 | 13.96 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| state index | 0.73 | 0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |