← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Fri, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 60% | 55% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.80 | fair |
| Bielefeld win | 15% | 20% | 6.50 | value: +31% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bielefeld | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 151.00 | 730.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1339.35 | 1632.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.04 | 28.34 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| league points | 14.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 18.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 11.96 | 12.96 |
| season ppg | 0.52 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.94 | 1.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |