← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Sun, Mar 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 60% | 56% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 4.00 | value: +4% |
| Bielefeld win | 15% | 18% | 6.00 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Union Berlin | Bielefeld |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1388.00 | 139.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1444.68 | 1334.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.13 | -0.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| league points | 31.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 0.50 |
| state index | -0.32 | -0.91 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |