← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Fri, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munich 1860 win | 46% | 55% | 2.05 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.40 | fair |
| Karlsruhe win | 26% | 21% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Munich 1860 | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 4186.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1493.90 | 1417.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.34 | 1.71 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 39.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.04 |
| state index | -0.16 | -0.55 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |