← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Fri, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 46% | 60% | 2.00 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.40 | fair |
| Ingolstadt win | 26% | 18% | 3.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 131.00 | 533.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1422.07 | 1646.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.30 | 47.58 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| league points | 26.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.12 |
| state index | -0.01 | 1.58 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |