← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Sun, Mar 13, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munich 1860 win | 43% | 39% | 2.20 | fair |
| Bielefeld win | 29% | 33% | 3.25 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bielefeld | Munich 1860 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 132.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1348.78 | 1479.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.48 | -15.97 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| league points | 13.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 0.52 | 1.44 |
| state index | -0.74 | -0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |