← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Sat, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 39% | 40% | 2.45 | fair |
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 32% | 32% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Union Berlin | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1380.00 | 710.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1441.07 | 1632.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.76 | 33.99 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| league points | 30.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.14 | 1.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |