← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Fri, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duisburg win | 39% | 46% | 2.40 | value: +10% |
| Karlsruhe win | 33% | 30% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Karlsruhe | Duisburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 4179.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1400.43 | 1517.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.33 | -21.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 24.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.60 |
| state index | -1.01 | -0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |