← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Mon, Mar 7, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 54% | 48% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 20% | 24% | 5.00 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 705.00 | 11480.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1621.63 | 1533.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.62 | 17.93 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| league points | 47.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.96 | 1.46 |
| state index | 0.68 | 0.46 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |