← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Sun, Mar 6, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 40% | 34% | 2.30 | fair |
| Aachen win | 31% | 40% | 3.10 | value: +24% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | Aachen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 119.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1398.07 | 1504.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.44 | 6.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| league points | 20.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.46 |
| state index | -0.25 | 0.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |