← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Sun, Mar 6, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 44% | 49% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.30 | fair |
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 27% | 24% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | 1. FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1374.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1479.43 | 1438.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.40 | -0.06 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 43.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 1.21 |
| state index | 0.25 | -0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |