← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Fri, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greuther Furth win | 39% | 42% | 2.38 | fair |
| VfL Osnabruck win | 33% | 33% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfL Osnabruck | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3.00 | 1342.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1400.12 | 1551.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.25 | 22.71 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| league points | 25.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.79 |
| state index | -0.31 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |