← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Mon, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 58% | 60% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.75 | fair |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 18% | 17% | 5.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 698.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1616.66 | 1484.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.69 | 7.27 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| league points | 44.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 1.87 |
| state index | 0.57 | -0.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |