← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Sat, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 40% | 42% | 2.38 | fair |
| Aachen win | 33% | 33% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aachen | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 513.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1522.99 | 1607.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.20 | 8.74 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.87 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| league points | 35.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 2.00 |
| state index | 0.58 | 0.71 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |