← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Sun, Feb 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfL Osnabruck win | 51% | 56% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.60 | fair |
| Oberhausen win | 22% | 21% | 4.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfL Osnabruck | Oberhausen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1393.62 | 1375.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.17 | -5.76 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| league points | 22.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| state index | -0.70 | -0.84 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |