← 2. Bundesliga 2010-11 · Sun, Feb 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 58% | 60% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.80 | fair |
| Bielefeld win | 17% | 17% | 6.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Bielefeld |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 111.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1475.87 | 1339.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.51 | -11.59 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| league points | 40.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 0.41 |
| state index | -0.19 | -1.51 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |