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Bielefeld 1–2 Kaiserslautern

← 2. Bundesliga 2009-10 Β· Mon, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kaiserslautern win36%2.65
Bielefeld win36%2.60
Draw28%3.30

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricBielefeldKaiserslautern
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days839.005040.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.003.00
elo1515.251596.72
elo momentum (last 5)-25.78-0.85
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.401.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.45
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.45
league points49.0062.00
league rank6.001.00
matches since blank5.003.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
rest days10.009.00
season ppg1.632.07
state index-0.180.46
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.60