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Kaiserslautern 3–5 Duisburg

← 2. Bundesliga 2008-09 Β· Sun, May 17, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kaiserslautern win58%1.57
Draw24%3.80
Duisburg win18%5.50

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score3

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricKaiserslauternDuisburg
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days4703.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
elo1513.201551.09
elo momentum (last 5)-15.464.92
form points (last 5)7.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.401.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
league points52.0049.00
league rank6.007.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.002.00
rest days5.005.00
season ppg1.631.53
state index-0.200.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.80