⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Ingolstadt 0–1 FC St. Pauli 1910

← 2. Bundesliga 2008-09 Β· Thu, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ingolstadt win44%2.10
FC St. Pauli 1910 win29%3.20
Draw27%3.40

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricIngolstadtFC St. Pauli 1910
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days43.0011275.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1398.831446.93
elo momentum (last 5)-37.57-3.89
form points (last 5)1.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.101.07
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.30
league points27.0042.00
league rank17.008.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win14.000.00
rest days4.004.00
season ppg0.871.35
state index-1.66-0.46
venue ppg (last 5)0.400.60