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1. FSV Mainz 05 0–1 Aachen

← 2. Bundesliga 2007-08 Β· Wed, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
1. FSV Mainz 05 win60%1.53
Draw25%3.70
Aachen win16%6.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

Metric1. FSV Mainz 05Aachen
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days2652.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
elo1589.611511.33
elo momentum (last 5)19.8635.89
form points (last 5)12.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.802.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.601.07
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
league points55.0045.00
league rank2.007.00
matches since blank14.005.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days5.003.00
season ppg1.771.45
state index1.040.55
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.40