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FC St. Pauli 1910 4–2 Erzgebirge AUE

← 2. Bundesliga 2007-08 Β· Fri, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC St. Pauli 1910 win45%2.00
Draw28%3.20
Erzgebirge AUE win27%3.40

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC St. Pauli 1910Erzgebirge AUE
blown lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days10898.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1462.371410.77
elo momentum (last 5)37.662.18
form points (last 5)9.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.692.01
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.30
league points39.0027.00
league rank10.0017.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win1.009.00
rest days5.007.00
season ppg1.300.90
state index0.39-0.99
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.20