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1. FSV Mainz 05 1–0 Offenbach

← 2. Bundesliga 2007-08 Β· Sun, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
1. FSV Mainz 05 win61%1.50
Draw24%3.80
Offenbach win15%7.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

Metric1. FSV Mainz 05Offenbach
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days2593.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1571.011412.56
elo momentum (last 5)-6.9011.28
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.261.35
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.15
league points37.0026.00
league rank4.0013.00
matches since blank5.007.00
matches since clean sheet2.007.00
matches since win2.000.00
rest days6.007.00
season ppg1.681.18
state index0.13-0.43
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.40