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Burghausen 1–1 CZ Jena

← 2. Bundesliga 2006-07 Β· Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Burghausen win37%2.40
CZ Jena win36%2.50
Draw27%3.30

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
17Shots12
10On target3
5Corners0
29Fouls19
3Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricBurghausenCZ Jena
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
cards avg (last 5)2.603.20
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.20-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.406.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.205.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.132.64
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.13
dominance (last 5)0.500.48
elo1390.281441.04
elo momentum (last 5)-22.1521.46
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.651.26
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.30
league points27.0033.00
league rank17.0015.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet3.005.00
matches since win4.001.00
rest days9.009.00
season ppg0.871.06
shot diff avg (last 5)0.60-1.60
shots for avg (last 5)15.0012.80
state index-0.78-0.14
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.40