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Greuther Furth 3–0 SC Paderborn 07

← 2. Bundesliga 2006-07 Β· Sun, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Greuther Furth win57%1.60
Draw26%3.60
SC Paderborn 07 win17%5.75

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
17Shots9
11On target3
6Corners2
20Fouls26
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricGreuther FurthSC Paderborn 07
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
cards avg (last 5)1.402.40
coach daysβ€”660.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.22
corner diff avg (last 5)2.60-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.405.20
corners for avg (last 5)7.004.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.211.87
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.12
dominance (last 5)0.540.53
elo1561.591472.22
elo momentum (last 5)21.5223.16
form points (last 5)12.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.802.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.341.26
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
league points48.0036.00
league rank6.0011.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
rest days7.009.00
season ppg1.661.24
shot diff avg (last 5)2.801.20
shots for avg (last 5)15.6011.60
state index0.710.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.40