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Kaiserslautern 4–0 Offenbach

← 2. Bundesliga 2006-07 Β· Fri, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kaiserslautern win59%1.55
Draw25%3.80
Offenbach win17%6.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
15Shots4
7On target1
2Corners4
19Fouls12
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricKaiserslauternOffenbach
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
cards avg (last 5)3.802.60
coach days3945.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.206.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.804.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.463.71
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.13
dominance (last 5)0.540.37
elo1532.421429.27
elo momentum (last 5)-13.38-14.91
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.400.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.35
league points47.0033.00
league rank6.0012.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.0013.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days5.005.00
season ppg1.621.14
shot diff avg (last 5)2.20-5.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.609.60
state index0.05-0.82
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.20