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Kaiserslautern 3–0 Greuther Furth

← 2. Bundesliga 2006-07 Β· Sun, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kaiserslautern win42%2.25
Greuther Furth win31%3.10
Draw28%3.25

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots9
7On target4
3Corners6
23Fouls12
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricKaiserslauternGreuther Furth
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
cards avg (last 5)3.601.00
coach days3940.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.402.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.604.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.207.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.502.18
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.03
dominance (last 5)0.500.55
elo1514.681579.33
elo momentum (last 5)-40.5847.22
form points (last 5)4.0015.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.201.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.602.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.251.20
h2 goals (last 10)0.401.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.30
league points44.0048.00
league rank6.005.00
matches since blank0.006.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.571.71
shot diff avg (last 5)0.403.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.4016.80
state index-0.491.15
venue ppg (last 5)1.602.40