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1. FC Köln 0–3 SC Freiburg

← 2. Bundesliga 2006-07 · Sun, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
1. FC Köln win42%2.20
SC Freiburg win29%3.30
Draw29%3.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
13Shots14
10On target8
6Corners5
15Fouls11
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric1. FC KölnSC Freiburg
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
cards avg (last 5)2.001.60
coach days165.00—
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.16
corner diff avg (last 5)4.40-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.005.60
corners for avg (last 5)9.405.00
corners volatility (last 10)5.132.70
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.09
dominance (last 5)0.470.64
elo1513.801566.76
elo momentum (last 5)32.9544.70
form points (last 5)10.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.002.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.261.35
h2 goals (last 10)1.001.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.35
league points41.0048.00
league rank10.004.00
matches since blank6.006.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days10.007.00
season ppg1.461.71
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.406.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.6015.80
state index0.571.10
venue ppg (last 5)2.202.20