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SC Paderborn 07 3–0 Munich 1860

← 2. Bundesliga 2006-07 Β· Fri, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SC Paderborn 07 win39%2.37
Munich 1860 win32%3.00
Draw29%3.20

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
6Shots5
5On target2
5Corners8
20Fouls16
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSC Paderborn 07Munich 1860
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
cards avg (last 5)2.402.00
coach days651.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.801.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.204.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.405.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.872.72
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.07
dominance (last 5)0.470.61
elo1456.651478.14
elo momentum (last 5)-4.6818.99
form points (last 5)6.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.141.43
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.15
league points33.0041.00
league rank11.009.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
rest days8.004.00
season ppg1.181.46
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.006.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.4017.40
state index-0.400.20
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.60