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SC Freiburg 2–0 FC Augsburg

← 2. Bundesliga 2006-07 Β· Sun, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SC Freiburg win54%1.75
Draw27%3.40
FC Augsburg win19%5.50

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
23Shots10
12On target6
4Corners9
11Fouls26
0Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSC FreiburgFC Augsburg
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
cards avg (last 5)1.801.80
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.200.18
corner diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.605.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.604.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.621.51
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.04
dominance (last 5)0.580.53
elo1554.341554.05
elo momentum (last 5)40.8250.75
form points (last 5)13.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)3.002.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.431.16
h2 goals (last 10)1.800.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.50
league points45.0042.00
league rank5.008.00
matches since blank5.007.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.671.56
shot diff avg (last 5)2.401.00
shots for avg (last 5)14.4014.20
state index1.010.93
venue ppg (last 5)3.001.20