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FC Augsburg 3–0 Erzgebirge AUE

← 2. Bundesliga 2006-07 Β· Sun, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Augsburg win45%2.00
Draw28%3.20
Erzgebirge AUE win27%3.35

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots14
6On target9
4Corners6
22Fouls22
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC AugsburgErzgebirge AUE
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
cards avg (last 5)2.201.20
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.210.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.404.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.803.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.408.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.872.92
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.18
dominance (last 5)0.470.64
elo1540.721516.34
elo momentum (last 5)40.233.67
form points (last 5)10.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.202.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.071.43
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.30
league points39.0042.00
league rank8.007.00
matches since blank6.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days15.9613.96
season ppg1.501.62
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.007.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.6018.00
state index0.750.19
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.20