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Hansa Rostock 1–1 1. FC Köln

← 2. Bundesliga 2006-07 · Mon, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hansa Rostock win46%2.05
Draw29%3.20
1. FC Köln win25%3.60

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
10Shots9
4On target6
4Corners10
17Fouls32
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHansa Rostock1. FC Köln
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
cards avg (last 5)2.001.80
coach days—138.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.400.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.605.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.205.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.002.76
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.12
dominance (last 5)0.550.46
elo1544.291487.52
elo momentum (last 5)5.34-12.41
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.26
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
league points47.0034.00
league rank2.0010.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win2.000.00
rest days8.008.00
season ppg1.881.36
shot diff avg (last 5)3.00-2.20
shots for avg (last 5)15.0012.60
state index0.16-0.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.20