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SC Paderborn 07 3–2 Rot-Weiß Essen

← 2. Bundesliga 2006-07 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SC Paderborn 07 win45%2.05
Draw28%3.20
Rot-Weiß Essen win26%3.60

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
14Shots8
7On target5
6Corners4
33Fouls20
5Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSC Paderborn 07Rot-Weiß Essen
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
cards avg (last 5)1.801.40
coach days618.00—
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.00-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)7.605.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.604.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.963.59
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.10
dominance (last 5)0.390.59
elo1449.061401.51
elo momentum (last 5)-13.6824.86
form points (last 5)4.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.631.48
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
league points27.0022.00
league rank13.0016.00
matches since blank2.003.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win3.001.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.130.92
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.403.40
shots for avg (last 5)9.0010.80
state index-0.66-0.05
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.80