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1. FC Köln 1–1 SC Paderborn 07

← 2. Bundesliga 2006-07 · Sun, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
1. FC Köln win56%1.65
Draw25%3.75
SC Paderborn 07 win19%5.25

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
15Shots9
7On target4
10Corners4
13Fouls19
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric1. FC KölnSC Paderborn 07
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
cards avg (last 5)2.001.60
coach days116.00604.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.805.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.581.91
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.03
dominance (last 5)0.500.49
elo1483.221458.96
elo momentum (last 5)4.215.32
form points (last 5)10.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.920.70
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
league points30.0026.00
league rank10.0013.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.361.18
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.400.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.6012.00
state index-0.15-0.06
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.40