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Braunschweig 0–1 Rot-Weiß Essen

← 2. Bundesliga 2006-07 · Fri, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Braunschweig win39%2.37
Rot-Weiß Essen win32%2.90
Draw29%3.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
4Shots12
2On target6
7Corners4
27Fouls27
6Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBraunschweigRot-Weiß Essen
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
cards avg (last 5)1.401.60
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.010.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.80-3.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.807.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.003.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.503.95
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.07
dominance (last 5)0.470.46
elo1352.511391.43
elo momentum (last 5)-4.408.57
form points (last 5)4.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.521.52
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.050.20
league points13.0018.00
league rank18.0017.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
rest days5.005.00
season ppg0.590.82
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.60-2.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.8010.60
state index-0.80-0.45
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.20