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FC St. Pauli 1910 1–2 Reutlingen

← 2. Bundesliga 2002-03 Β· Fri, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC St. Pauli 1910 win46%2.00
Draw28%3.20
Reutlingen win26%3.60

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC St. Pauli 1910Reutlingen
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days9029.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1379.541479.63
elo momentum (last 5)20.207.97
form points (last 5)8.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
league points21.0032.00
league rank16.0011.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet4.001.00
matches since win1.000.00
rest days5.007.00
season ppg0.841.33
state index-0.51-0.04
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.20