Nurnberg 1–0 1. FSV Mainz 05

← 2. Bundesliga 2000-01 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Uwe Kemmling

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Nurnberg win	57%	1.55
Draw	24%	3.60
1. FSV Mainz 05 win	19%	4.70

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0	Half-time score	0
12	Shots	4
4	On target	3
3	Corners	4
15	Fouls	14
1	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Nurnberg	1. FSV Mainz 05
blown lead rate (last 20)	0.15	0.00
cards avg (last 5)	2.00	2.20
coach days	1343.00	94.00
comeback rate (last 20)	0.00	0.00
congestion 21d	3.00	2.00
conversion (last 5)	0.15	0.14
corner diff avg (last 5)	1.60	4.40
corners against avg (last 5)	2.80	3.80
corners for avg (last 5)	4.40	8.20
corners volatility (last 10)	2.55	2.49
defensive leak (last 5)	0.18	0.10
dominance (last 5)	0.49	0.52
elo	1561.04	1500.10
elo momentum (last 5)	-37.31	33.44
form points (last 5)	4.00	10.00
goal diff avg (last 5)	-0.40	0.80
goals against avg (last 5)	1.40	0.80
goals for avg (last 5)	1.00	1.60
goals volatility (last 10)	0.79	1.17
h2 goals (last 10)	0.30	1.00
ht lead rate (last 20)	0.55	0.15
league points	59.00	39.00
league rank	1.00	13.00
matches since blank	3.00	1.00
matches since clean sheet	11.00	3.00
matches since win	0.00	2.00
rest days	7.00	8.00
season ppg	1.90	1.26
shot diff avg (last 5)	0.80	-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)	9.60	12.60
state index	0.03	0.35
venue ppg (last 5)	1.20	1.40

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

attendance

28000