FC St. Pauli 1910 1–0 Reutlingen

← 2. Bundesliga 2000-01 · Thu, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J�rgen Jansen

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Best price
FC St. Pauli 1910 win	52%	1.70
Draw	27%	3.20
Reutlingen win	21%	4.20

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1	Half-time score	0
14	Shots	10
4	On target	2
8	Corners	2
24	Fouls	17
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	FC St. Pauli 1910	Reutlingen
blown lead rate (last 20)	0.10	0.05
cards avg (last 5)	3.20	1.40
coach days	8279.00	—
comeback rate (last 20)	0.10	0.05
congestion 21d	3.00	3.00
elo	1571.88	1533.65
elo momentum (last 5)	18.34	4.83
form points (last 5)	10.00	8.00
goal diff avg (last 5)	0.60	0.20
goals against avg (last 5)	1.40	1.60
goals for avg (last 5)	2.00	1.80
goals volatility (last 10)	0.94	2.22
h2 goals (last 10)	1.50	1.50
ht lead rate (last 20)	0.30	0.25
league points	40.00	36.00
league rank	3.00	6.00
matches since blank	11.00	5.00
matches since clean sheet	1.00	7.00
matches since win	1.00	2.00
rest days	5.00	4.00
season ppg	1.82	1.64
state index	0.92	0.26
venue ppg (last 5)	2.20	1.40

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

attendance

18000