← Segunda División 2023 · Sun, May 26, 04:30 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Valladolid win | 69% | 1.38 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.22 |
| Villarreal B win | 12% | 9.01 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Valladolid −1.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Villarreal B −1.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.68 |
| Under | 42% | 2.29 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.