← Segunda División 2022 · Sat, May 27, 02:15 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Andorra (club) win | 56% | 2.00 |
| Draw | 26% | 4.20 |
| Villarreal B win | 19% | 6.59 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Andorra (club) −0.75 | 58% | 1.67 |
| Villarreal B −0.75 | 42% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.68 |
| Under | 43% | 2.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.