← Segunda División 2022 · Sat, May 20, 04:30 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Eibar win | 60% | 1.62 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.60 |
| Sp Gijon win | 14% | 7.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Eibar −0.75 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Sp Gijon −0.75 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.63 |
| Over | 41% | 2.37 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 13 | Corners | 0 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.