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Lorca FC 2–1 Sevilla B

← Segunda División 2017 · Fri, Jun 1, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Lorca FC win50%1.93
Draw25%3.87
Sevilla B win25%3.89

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
17Shots12
10On target7
6Corners7
14Fouls7
0Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLorca FCSevilla B
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
cards avg (last 5)2.602.20
coach days304.00—
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.405.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.205.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.572.32
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.05
dominance (last 5)0.370.38
elo1320.061342.33
elo momentum (last 5)2.7925.19
form points (last 5)6.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
league points31.0032.00
league rank24.0022.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet4.002.00
matches since win2.000.00
rest days5.005.00
scorer concentration0.15—
season ppg0.700.78
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.60-5.60
shots for avg (last 5)8.208.40
squad age26.94—
state index-0.77-0.42
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.60