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Oviedo 2–1 Sevilla B

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo win69%1.40
Draw20%4.91
Sevilla B win11%8.76

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
19Shots6
7On target2
7Corners3
18Fouls12
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOviedoSevilla B
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
cards avg (last 5)2.802.00
coach days322.00—
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.04
corner diff avg (last 5)0.201.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.804.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.005.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.122.28
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.06
dominance (last 5)0.500.43
elo1503.551333.60
elo momentum (last 5)-25.268.85
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.740.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
league points69.0029.00
league rank6.0023.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days0.006.00
scorer concentration0.20—
season ppg1.600.74
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.20-2.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.208.60
squad age29.72—
state index-0.24-0.60
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.60