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Lugo 1–0 Sevilla B

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Lugo win56%1.72
Draw26%3.77
Sevilla B win18%5.46

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots4
3On target1
3Corners5
17Fouls15
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLugoSevilla B
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
cards avg (last 5)2.803.20
coach days309.00—
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.00-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.406.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.404.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.272.07
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.08
dominance (last 5)0.420.41
elo1428.101328.47
elo momentum (last 5)-38.2513.88
form points (last 5)2.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
league points54.0026.00
league rank15.0023.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win6.000.00
rest days8.008.00
scorer concentration0.18—
season ppg1.350.70
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.00-3.60
shots for avg (last 5)8.409.00
squad age26.27—
state index-0.95-0.62
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.60