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Cadiz 0–0 Sp Gijon

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cadiz win38%2.54
Draw33%2.96
Sp Gijon win29%3.35

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
9Shots5
3On target1
7Corners4
18Fouls18
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCadizSp Gijon
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
cards avg (last 5)1.602.40
coach days751.00—
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.25
corner diff avg (last 5)2.20-4.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.007.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.202.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.753.02
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.02
dominance (last 5)0.490.34
elo1560.111605.50
elo momentum (last 5)-10.4853.64
form points (last 5)6.0015.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.001.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.601.14
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.55
league points64.0064.00
league rank3.005.00
matches since blank0.008.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
rest days8.007.00
scorer concentration0.25—
season ppg1.681.83
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.00-7.40
shots for avg (last 5)8.607.40
squad age26.54—
state index-0.020.85
venue ppg (last 5)1.802.60