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Valladolid 0–1 Sp Gijon

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Valladolid win43%2.24
Draw28%3.41
Sp Gijon win28%3.43

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
13Shots8
4On target2
7Corners2
12Fouls13
5Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricValladolidSp Gijon
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
cards avg (last 5)3.002.60
coach days14.00—
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.28
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.60-3.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.806.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.202.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.592.88
defensive leak (last 5)0.030.02
dominance (last 5)0.470.36
elo1498.721596.59
elo momentum (last 5)-5.3555.50
form points (last 5)7.0015.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.002.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.602.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.14
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.50
league points58.0061.00
league rank9.005.00
matches since blank0.007.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win2.000.00
rest days0.007.00
scorer concentration0.49—
season ppg1.531.79
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.00-6.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.008.60
squad age28.77—
state index-0.020.92
venue ppg (last 5)2.002.00