← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sat, Jun 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mallorca win | 58% | 17% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 26% | 4.30 | value: +13% |
| Valladolid win | 19% | 56% | 5.12 | value: +188% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valladolid | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 339.00 | 155.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1473.49 | 1421.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.14 | -3.65 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 51.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.12 |
| state index | -0.50 | -0.64 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |