← Segunda División 2015-16 · Sat, Jun 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna win | 57% | 18% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 29% | 4.08 | value: +17% |
| Oviedo win | 19% | 53% | 5.07 | value: +169% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oviedo | CA Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3.00 | 400.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1444.04 | 1466.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.96 | -16.37 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 59.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.49 |
| state index | -0.66 | -0.48 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |